Will Starmer Be Forced to Resign? Five Key Moves That Could Seal the Prime Minister’s Fate

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is facing increasing pressure just six months into his tenure, as a series of controversies and policy missteps have left his position increasingly vulnerable. Public opinion has soured after a string of decisions, including cutting the winter fuel allowance for millions of pensioners, sparking a revolt from farmers over inheritance tax changes, and mishandling of the Southport killings. The recent “wardrobe-gate” saga has also contributed to a downturn in his popularity, leaving the Prime Minister struggling to maintain his authority.

Political analyst John Curtice has drawn comparisons between Starmer’s current predicament and the situation in 1979, when Labor’s rule under James Callaghan ended amid economic turmoil and industrial unrest, famously known as the Winter of Discontent. Starmer, too, is facing a turbulent period in office, with opinion polls showing growing dissatisfaction, as reported by GB News.

While a petition calling for an early General Election garnered more than three million signatures last year, Starmer still enjoys a commanding majority in Parliament, allowing him to ride out some of the pressure. However, his position is far from secure. Several mechanisms within the Labor Party could potentially force him to step down if his leadership becomes untenable.

Starmer’s fate may ultimately hinge on his own actions following his pledge during the Beergate investigation in 2022, where he vowed to resign if found guilty of breaking Covid rules. While he was cleared of wrongdoing in the investigation, the promise remains a significant issue. If new evidence were to surface proving his guilt, political pressure would mount for him to uphold his pledge. Breaking that promise could severely damage his credibility and authority, risking alienation from Labor supporters.

If Starmer refused to resign voluntarily, Labor MPs, party members, and affiliated unions could push for his removal without initiating a formal process. Public statements calling for his resignation, a mass resignation of Shadow Cabinet ministers, or the withdrawal of support from key trade unions could all contribute to making his position untenable.

Alternatively, if Starmer remained defiant, a formal challenge to his leadership could arise within Parliament. The Conservatives or another opposition party might table a motion of no confidence in his leadership. While such a motion would not automatically remove him, it would further erode his standing.

Internally, Labor’s rulebook provides two main routes for a leadership challenge. First, 20% of Labor MPs—around 40 MPs—could nominate an alternative candidate, triggering a leadership election among the party’s members and affiliated unions. Alternatively, Labor’s National Executive Committee (NEC) could declare a leadership vacancy, forcing Starmer to recontest his position. If he lost the contest, he would be replaced.

Should Starmer resist internal and external pressures and cling to power, it could come at a high cost for Labor’s future prospects. Recent polling projections show Labor would lose its majority and potentially enter a coalition government if an election were held today. In a new YouGov/Sky News poll, Nigel Farage’s party has even pulled ahead of Labor, polling at 25%, with the Tories trailing in third at 21%. The stakes are high as Starmer’s leadership faces an uncertain future.